Much has been written about the probabilities of matching the 6 numbers of the winning combination of La Primitiva. When a player fills in a ticket he usually does not think about the number of possible combinations that may exist.
Searching the internet, either in pages that offer data on the La Primitiva draws, as in pages of calculations and mathematical probabilities, we will find that in many of them they consider that the probability of success for the 6 numbers is 1 out of 13.983.816 .
But do we know exactly where that calculation comes from?
The solution is very simple and is determined by a statistical calculation, you just simply multiply the six highest numbers in the table (49x48x47x46x45x44). The result that this multiplication gives us is 10,068,347,520.
On the other hand, multiply the figures that represent the balls that we must hit (6x5x4x3x2x1). The result that gives us this multiplication is 720.
Once we obtain these two quantities, we simply divide the largest one among the lowest (10,068,347,520 / 720) and the result that gives us is exactly 13,983,816.
The calculation of the odds of winning the jackpot of La Primitiva
In this case and because of the extra ball to be chosen among 10 possible ones comes into play, it means that the probabilities of hitting the 6 + 1 numbers of the winning combination are multiplied by 10. , that is, we will have 1 possibility among 139,838,160.
While to qualify for lower prizes, the odds increase considerably.
- The odds To guess 5 numbers plus the complementary number are 1 out of 2,330,636.
- The 5 non-complementary numbers would be 1 out of 55,491.
- The 4 numbers would mean 1 out of 1032.
- The 3 hits would be 1 out of 57.
- Hitting 2 numbers allows us approximately 1 out of 2.29.
- Hitting the complementary is easy to calculate, 1 in 10.
Is it difficult to not hit any number in La Primitiva?
The odds of not hitting any number of the 6 that make up the winning combination of any draw are approximately 50%.
To calculate it we will start from the base that there are 6 “good” numbers (possible hits) and 43 “bad” numbers (errors).
If we take into account that the multiplication among each other of the “good” numbers (49x48x47x46x45x44), as we have seen above, it is 10,068,347,520, and if we do the same with the “bad” numbers (43x42x41x40x39x38), an amount of 4,389,446,880 results . If we divide these amounts we find that 6.096.454 are the chances of not hitting any number compared to the total probability of hitting the full 6 numbers. And that means 1 between 2.29.
